Pre-Primary Polling: No two are alike, but the results are all the same

By Christopher H. Roberts

    Though they have their disagreements, the would-be Democratic 2nd Middlesex state senators have at least one unified message.
    “We’re very happy with our polling results,” said Erin A. Mackey, daughter and campaign manager of candidate Joseph K. Mackey. “It’s been fantastic. We don’t feel uncertain. We expect to win on August 30.”
     “We’ve put ourselves in a position to win on August 30,” agreed Michael McGovern, Mackey’s counterpart on Paul C. Casey’s campaign. “We’re very encouraged.”
       With less than a month to go before the Democratic primary, every campaign is quick to show its enthusiasm and exude satisfaction with results, but unwilling to reveal specifics. McGovern and Mackey’s enthusiasm mirrored similarly positive statements from the Michael J. Callahan and Patricia D. Jehlen camps. For now, only top-level campaign staffers will know exactly how well their candidates are polling.

      But whether good or bad, the numbers won’t change candidates’ strategies or message, nor will a campaign try to cozy up to any specific voter bloc, said Daniel M. Cohen, a Jehlen strategist.
     “You can’t get away with saying one thing in Medford and another thing in Somerville,” he said. Voters quickly pick up on such inconsistent pandering, causing a negative effect, he said.
      Mackey said her father’s campaign has relied on outside sources to find its numbers for the sake of accuracy. “You want to get the best information possible, and from unbiased sources,” she said.
     Mackey pointed to the campaign’s interactive CD-ROM, as a reason for the strong results, and noted that the response to her father’s campaign has been equally strong in Paul Casey’s home district of Winchester and Somerville’s heavily Brazilian sections.

     “We’re lucky to have campaign workers that speak Portuguese. Everyone has a stake in this election, and we want to reach out to them,” she said.
       Adam Knight, Callahan’s campaign manager, said his campaign has eschewed higher-tech polling techniques for a more organic approach. The effort has a more organic and less politically sophisticated approach.
     “Mike is a great one on one campaigner. We’re not a tech campaign or a retail campaign. And we don’t just focus on the super voter households.”
     The Casey campaign has mostly done its polling in-house, with an emphasis on finding undecided voters through canvassing, said McGovern. “We’ve been knocking on a lot of doors, and that’s where the polling starts,” he said.
     McGovern said the campaign will also use outside sources to get its numbers, like Mackey, but noted those numbers can’t be considered foolproof. “If you call between 300 and 400 people, there’s at least a 5% error margin in your poll, he said. “We’ve polled more than that.”
    Still, like his competitors, Casey is not basing his campaign on polling, nor will he change his message because of voter reaction, said McGovern.
   “The strategy enacted in May hasn’t changed,” he said.  “We’re running on Paul’s record.”